Posted and Updated by Jim Duncan on 12/30/2016 at 1:25pm
Note the discussion below is modified from the original one posted on 12/29 to account for new information. New data in today is indicating the GFS model now matches the Euro, with more of a chilly rain or brief mix set-up beginning as early as late Thursday.
Model trends seem to be converging now for more of a chilly, rain situation from the potential storm setting up for the end of next week. Over the past couple of days there have been some model hints at a winter storm around Jan 6-8 timeframe. The Euro model backed away from this scenario yesterday, and is now being matched by the latest GFS.
Both are showing a faster-moving system with primarily rain with some mix possible, now in the late Thursday-Saturday morning window. Updates will be posted to this blog as needed, but for now it looks like threats of any wintry precipitation could end up being short-duration and mostly at the very beginning and then the tail end of the system. This time of year can be volatile with respect to computer guidance flip-flopping, so we'll continue to monitor for any changes. ANY forecast more than a few days out is almost always very low confidence.
All that said, temperatures will be taking another big tumble that weekend of the 7-8th, with the patterns overall still overall looking a little more wintry than it has been into mid-month.