Post by Andrew Freiden, 8:16am Monday
Our past two storms were fluffy snow with the only forecast challenges being HOW MUCH we'd get. Now, appears like we are back to normal with all precipitation types on the table.
The now-famous European Model has been persistent on this storm for days now, so we watch each run of the model (twice daily) for subtle hints and changes.... This morning, I notice a couple of quick things to mention.
1) Snow start time (wednesday afternoon) is trending later Now, it looks like the start time would be afternoon in RVA versus the morning.
2) Storm looks plenty strong but a smidge closer to the coast, which would mean a quicker changeover to rain in Richmond (Wednesday night) after a period of heavy snow.
Here's a look at the ONSET of the storm, which will probably be snow.
Then transition through precipitation types would probably happen Wednesday night.
Here's the Wednesday NIGHT forecast:
See how warm air "eats" away at the storm from the SE? a tough forecast going forward with potential big snow toward the mountains with mainly rain at the coast. Richmond: stuck in between.
For planning purposes: both Wednesday evening and Thursday morning's commutes could be BAD.