A big coastal storm could be developing sometime around the middle of next week (late Tue thru early Thu). The European and American(GFS) forecast models have had huge differences over the past few days (GFS keeping all of the moisture south of Virginia). However, the latest runs are beginning to agree on a very similar track of the low.
Even if it tracks along the NC and VA coast, we still need cold enough air to produce snow. The higher angle of the sun in combination with longer days this time of year can make it very difficult for temperatures at the surface to drop enough for snow to stick. The question will be whether or not we get heavy enough precip for an extended enough period of time to cool the column of air and drop us to 32°. As of right now, we expect precip to begin as rain late Tuesday, and switch to wet snow sometime Wednesday.
The POTENTIAL is there for a significant snow event, but it's just too far away to pinpoint the details of this storm. As we know, the longer away the forecast, the more room there is for error. We'll wait and see if the model runs continue on track and we'll continue to post updates here each day..
-Kevin Jeanes
