The newest models keep the low on track to intensify over the NC/VA coast Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS brings rain in as early as Tuesday afternoon, the Euro model keeps the rain out of the forecast until Tuesday night. There is a high probability of us getting rain, but the question on everyone's mind is how much snow are we looking at.
Everything will rely on the surface temperatures, which could stay above freezing throughout this entire event. Temperatures a couple thousand feet aloft will be below freezing, so we could see some snow falling Wednesday morning and melting when it hits the ground. A better chance of snow actually sticking to the ground would be Wednesday evening/night.
IMPORTANT NOTE: In order for us to get significant snow, it has to be snowing hard and long enough to drop road and surface temps to 32°. This transports the colder aloft to the surface. Right now, this looks like a sloppy wet snow event (a lot of melting right away) that could turn into accumulating snow late Wednesday. We'll keep posting here as the forecast evolves.