*updated at 8:50am 3/5/2013 from Andrew Freiden and Kevin Jeanes*
As we get closer to tomorrow's coastal storm getting started, the chance of significant snow in Metro Richmond diminishes... a slight jog north in the expected storm track means our temperatures will be even warmer than we thought yesterday.
Yesterday, we thought Wednesday's temperatures would drop into the mid 30s-- borderline for snow.
Now it looks like we may hit the low 40s tomorrow before the temperature starts to drop. It's now looking like mainly rain with only minimal snow. Some snow could fall during the evening or even early Thursday morning, but accumulations will be minimal.
Here's the map:
Timing in Richmond?
Wednesday Morning: Rain (lower 40s or upper 30s)
Wednesday Midday: Rain (upper 30s)
Wednesday Afternoon/Evening: Rain or Rain/Snow Mix (mid 30s)
The changeover to snow is expected sooner North and West of Richmond. And we still think 5" is possible in the Northern and Western Side of Louisa/Fluvanna/Goochland Counties.
The big snow totals still look to be in the Shenandoah Valley, from Augusta County to Winchester. There, 1' of snow is expected. It'll be heavy wet snow. Add high winds in the mix and we'll likely see power outages in the NW portion of Virginia.
Plenty of questions about school closings. Closings may come in for our NW Counties, in particular those that see snow before daybreak tomorrow. There's a slight chance of some closings/delays on Thursday morning, in response to some snow showers that may be flying Wednesday Night or early Thursday.
Could be a mess NORTH AND WEST toward Charlottesville and Fredericksburg while they will just be wet and maybe slushy in Richmond Metro.
Extra bonus Weather Insider Info:
This image is a part of a forecast model sounding. It's a way for us to look at the vertical structure of the atmosphere at a point (in this case, at RIC). A few things to notice:
1: this is a forecast of the conditions at 11pm Wednesday (red oval)
2: the blue dot on the left of the image means the forecast is for snow
3: the red line shows temperature. at 2500 feet off the ground, the air is below freezing but at the surface, it's 36.5°F. At that temperature you'd like to have a combination of frozen ground and heavy snow to get accumulation. Neither one of those is forecast to be present.
The model indicates about 1" of rain tonight through Wednesday afternoon but by the time it changes to snow there's not much left. Still could be some snow in Richmond Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but not a lot.
*We'll keep you posted here, on our facebook pages, and of course on TV*