Good morning,
Here's the latest track on all the models (except the european. I'll show that one below). Consensus is building for a hit on the Delmarva Peninsula. Models are tracking south in a steady march to match up with the European model which has shown a similar landfall for a couple of days now.
The black line is one I hand drew, showing my best guess based on the above models. Now, let's look at the overnight run of the European model:
This one shows a Delmarva landfall. And based on this and it's remarkably consistent performance with this storm so far, a landfall in Maryland (and maybe even Virginia) has to be considered.
This storm is morphing into an extratropical storm, and a large one at that-- meaning strong winds will spread far from the center.
Threats for us continue to be:
-Damaging wind gusts (40mph+) late Sunday/Monday/Monday Night
-Heavy rain: 6+ inches at coast, 4" inland, much less to in the mountains (these numbers could vary widely as heavy rain bands swirl around the storm)
-Coastal Flooding due to storm surge. Anyone along a tidal river/creek should expect a storm surge (a full moon will enhance flooding at times of high tide)
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Is there a chance this forecast is way overdone? Yes. With a turn north and a hit on Long Island, our effects will be much less. But this is starting to look less likely.
-Andrew Freiden
afreiden@nbc12.com
