The battle of the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) models continue. The Euro model still wants a close encounter for us with what will be the non-tropical remains of Sandy - bringing it over the Delmarva Peninsula by Monday. The GFS had had some big changes over the past 2 days in its forecast - but now brings the storm south of NYC by Tuesday.
Both models have been shifting the storm's track gradually closer to the coast. The European model has a better track record, but it still isn't a sure deal.
The main feature actually isn't the center of the storm, but the dip in the jet stream over the central U.S. This is what will eventually draw the storm in to the West. GFS is indicating the trough won't capture the storm until Later Monday and Tuesday - & ECMWF is indicating the trough will capture MUCH sooner.
What this means: It is LIKELY we will have strong winds - could be gusts over 40mph (tropical storm force) - for an extended period of time. Timing would EITHER be from late Sunday through Tuesday OR late Monday through Wednesday. Be prepared for potential power outages and several inches of rain, especially near the coast. The good news is our rivers levels are low from our lack of rain over the past month. So even if we get 4 or 5 inches of rain in central VA, the ground and rivers should be able to take it. However at the coast and near the mouth of the Bay there could be a storm surge of 2-3ft. Coastal areas could get 6"+.
-Kevin
