The newer model runs continue to bring Sandy to the Northeast coast some time around Monday or Tuesday. Sandy has gained more strength and size than expected as it approached and departed Cuba. It should continue to weaken as it moves across the Bahamas, but it could still be large category 1 hurricane as it moves north several hundred miles off the Carolina coast.
There are still major differenes in the GFS and ECMWF models in the track and the timing of this storm. Below is an image from both forecast models at 8am Monday. The color contour represents wind gusts. The white lines (isobars) represent where the storm's center is. The ECMWF wants to bring it closer to southern New Jersey by early Monday. While the GFS keeps it MUCH farther east before it eventually swings back toward to New Englad by late Tuesday.
Rain and wind here wouldn't be as bad until Tuesday/Wednesday if the GFS holds true, but we may be getting gusts over 40mph by Sunday night if the ECMWF holds true.
Strong winds should continue to expand farther away from the center of the storm as it taps into colder air in the atmosphere. Even if it stays farther off the coast, we could still have strong wind gusts across central and eastern Virginia. Bottom line is be prepared by Sunday just in case it arrives sooner than later. Have a kit ready in case your power goes out and clear and ditches, drains, or gutters in case of flooding.
-Kevin
