NBC12 Weather Insider

Jet stream carves out huge Eastern trough

This map of the upper-level winds several miles aloft shows the strongest winds, i.e. the jet stream, highlighted in blue. Note the huge trough in the East, which was responsible for pulling Sandy from far offshore back westward into the United States.  Out west, another smaller dip in the jet can be seen moving into the Pacific Northwest. That will amplify as it moves east by later in the weekend, and could fuel some energy for a weak coastal system along the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night.

Wind Warnings Dropped For Central VA

Wind gusts never exceeded 40mph at RIC last night, and are only expected to weaken from here.  The brunt of Sandy was felt much farther north and northeast of metro Richmond.  Wind warnings/advisories have been dropped for Central VA, but continue for northern and western VA.

Roughly 200,000 people are without power across Virginia, but the large majority is near D.C. and along the northern edge of the Northern Neck.  Safe to say Richmond was spared from any widespread damage.

Hourly winds at RIC. not much change past few hours

Time	Temp.	Dew	Relative	Wind	Wind	Visibility	WX	Clouds	Sea Level	Altimeter	Station	Precip	Precip	Precip	Precip	6 Hr	6 Hr	24 Hr	24 Hr	Quality
		Point	Humidity	Direction	Speed				Pressure	Setting	Pressure	1 hour	3 hour	6 hour	24 hour	Max	Min	Max	Min	Control
(EDT)	(f)	(f)	(%)		(mph)	(miles)			(mb)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	Temp	Temp	Temp	Temp
29 Oct 9:54 pm EDT	44	41	89	WSW	24G36	8.00	-RA	BKN014 OVC022	982.0	28.98	28.813	0.04								OK
29 Oct 8:54 pm EDT	44	41	89	W	23G32	7.00	-RA	BKN014 OVC022	982.2	28.99	28.823	0.06								OK
29 Oct 8:01 pm EDT	45	41	87	W	24G32	6.00	RA BR	BKN014 OVC022		29.00	28.833	0.01								OK
29 Oct 7:54 pm EDT	45	41	86	W	18G36	6.00	-RA BR	BKN017 OVC024	982.6	29.00	28.833	0.09		0.79		49	45			OK
29 Oct 6:54 pm EDT	45	42	90	W	25G38	9.00	-RA	BKN017 OVC024	982.9	29.01	28.843	0.05								OK
29 Oct 5:54 pm EDT	46	43	89	W	24G38	6.00	-RA BR	BKN015 OVC021	983.9	29.04	28.873	0.05								OK
29 Oct 4:54 pm EDT	46	43	89	W	25G36	4.00	-RA BR	BKN015 OVC023	985.1	29.08	28.913	0.11	0.60							OK
29 Oct 3:54 pm EDT	47	44	90	W	25G35	2.50	RA BR	BKN015 OVC020	986.6	29.12	28.953	0.19								OK
29 Oct 2:54 pm EDT	47	45	93	WNW	18G32	2.00	RA BR	BKN015 OVC022	988.2	29.17	29.002	0.30								OK
29 Oct 2:40 pm EDT	48	45	87	WNW	20G31	1.75	RA BR	BKN013 OVC020		29.18	29.012	0.25								OK
29 Oct 2:07 pm EDT	48	46	93	WNW	22G33	1.75	+RA BR	BKN015 BKN021 OVC026		29.20	29.032	0.09								OK
29 Oct 1:54 pm EDT	49	46	90	WNW	23G30	2.00	RA BR	SCT016 BKN021 OVC034	989.7	29.21	29.042	0.21		0.84		52	49			OK
29 Oct 1:50 pm EDT	48	46	93	WNW	18G32	2.50	RA BR	BKN016 BKN021 OVC036		29.22	29.052	0.19								OK
29 Oct 12:54 pm EDT	49	47	93	NW	22G30	3.00	RA BR	BKN013 OVC020	991.0	29.25	29.082	0.24								OK

Sorting through this jigsaw puzzle

This is the latest map showing all of the weather advisories, watches, and warnings in effect over the region. Look a bit confusing? Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm warnings, Flood Watches, Flood Warnings, High Wind Warnings, Wind Advisories... there's more, but you get the idea. Not your ordinary weather day!

-Jim

Sandy Screaming Toward the Coast-- Landfall soon

Wow:  Sandy appears to be screaming WNW at 20mph.  AT 1pm, the storm was only 100 miles offshore!
Landfall is likely going to happen around 5pm.

What does this mean for the forecast? 
-Rain totals could come in on the lower end of forecast, if the Atlantic moisture is cut off sooner.

-Winds might pick up a bit sooner than many are expecting. 

Note that we still expect it to slow down after making landfall... bringing prolonged winds this evening and overnight.

-NBC12 weather guys (we're all here)

BIG difference in Sandy Rain Today VS. Tomorrow

Rain totals the rest of today and tonight (top map) heaviest northern VA. Then tomorrow (bottom map) MUCH less significant moisture as the storm loses strength to our north. (Precip. outlook from NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center).

-Jim

Sandy's Rain: Sharp Drop-off away from the Coast

Good Morning,

This map looks decidedly tropical, even as Sandy transitions to a post-tropical storm.  Rain so far has been coming down in buckets along the Chesapeake Bay and before 10am it had rained well less than an inch along I-95. 

Check the colors and the legend:

Crazy:  In only 60 miles, the rain goes from around 0.30" in Richmond to more like a foot on the eastern tips of Lancaster and Northumberland counties.

That gradient should even out a little this afternoon and tonight as rain band are oriented more East/West vs. North/South.  We think Southern Virginia will be much drier than Northern VA for the rest of the storm. 

-Andrew Freiden

8am: Sandy has made the turn toward the coast + Forecast tweaks.

Sandy is now moving NNW at 20mph.  As she gets closer, winds get stronger.  Power outages likely this evening and tonight with 60mph+ gusts possible in Richmond.
Here's the latest one-page briefing from the NWS Wakefield:

Download Oct29onesheet

Our wind forecast has gone UP a bit but the rain forecast is a little lower in Richmond and points South.

High Wind Warning Richmond/Petersburg

The High Wind Warning has been extended farther into Central Virginia to include Richmond, Petersburg, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Hanover, Henrico, Chesterfield, and Prince George.  As Sandy reaches southern New Jersey sometime late tonight, winds will increase substantially.  Be prepared for possible power outages overnight as wind gusts could approach 60mph.  Gusts will be higher across the Northern Neck through the D.C. metro area.

Winds could gust around 50mph by late afternoon.  Strongest winds continue overnight.

Some snowflakes?

This is the RPM model forecast for just before sunrise Tuesday. Air aloft could certainly be cold enough for snow, and this model indicates that at least a few wet flakes will be possible, even over Central Virginia.