Posted By Meteorologist Matt Holiner 2/1/15, 4:45pm
For Richmond to get a sizable snow, things have to line up just right. Just a slight change in one of the variables can cause the whole thing to fall apart. Thursday will provide us with another opportunity for things to line up, but will it happen this time?
The initial set up is actually a very favorable one for snow. Early indications point to an area of low pressure moving from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will be a low filled with moisture that will be able to produce precipitation easily. Of course, you have to have cold air if you want this precipitation to fall as snow. This too looks to be falling into place for Richmond. Much cooler air from Canada will be arriving Wednesday night into Thursday morning across Central Virginia, causing temperatures to fall below freezing by Thursday afternoon. If precipitation were to fall then, it would be all snow.
BUT, here's the catch. Right now the majority of the models have the low tracking pretty far to our east. This would keep the bulk of the moisture offshore and result in only a dusting in Richmond with slightly higher snow amounts to the east of town.
This far out, it's still possible that the low could end up tracking a little farther west, which would result in considerably higher snow totals. By the same token, this also means that the low could shift farther east, causing us to just be cold without any precipitation. Once again, a lot of uncertainty with this system. We'll keep you updated throughout the week!