Decision Virginia

Gillespie sidesteps Ryan budget- touts "legal status" on immigration reform

By: Ryan Nobles

Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie is playing it safe in the run up to his heated race for U.S. Senate against incumbent Mark Warner (D).

As the candidate dips his toe into a full blown campaign, he is sticking to talking points as he wades through a convention challenge leading up to the fall campaign. 

Gillespie chose NBC12 as his first live local television interview and we got the chance to press him on some of the key issues voters will be using to make their choice in not only November but in the convention in June. 

We asked him about the role of the Tea Party in his campaign, his thoughts on immigration reform and how he would vote on the proposed House Budget authored by former Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan. 

You can see the full interview below:

 

Would he vote YES or NO on the Ryan Budget?- "There are things in Paul Ryan's plan that I think are good, there are things I would have some concerns about, but I think the most important thing is that he puts us on a path to a balanced budget." 

He never gave us a Yes or N0, but it seems from his answer that he is not fully supportive of the plan in his current form. He attempted to use the question as a way to wrap the current Senate from avoiding presenting a budget of their own. 

Would he support a path to citizenship as part of immigration reform? "I think we do need to come to terms with some form of legal status. But I think the people who have come here legally and played by the rules it wouldn't be fair to them to confer citizenship on people who have not done that. But I do think it is unlikely that we are going to have a mass deportation of some 10-12 million people." 

 Immigration is always a sticky issue for Republicans in particular. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R) who is mulling a run for president ran into heat from the party's right wing for suggesting that some who enter the country illegally do so out of an "act of love".  The controversy is not reserved to national members of the GOP. The Republican Party of Virginia's new Executive Director took all kinds of heat from immigration reform foes for taking a meeting with pro-immigration reform advocates. 

Gillespie is trying to walk a fine line. Deal with the reality that is 15-20 million illegal immigrants, but stop short of offering full citizenship and instead create a new class of "legal status". We will see how that plays with the party hard- cores. 

..speaking of the party hard-cores

Will the Tea Party play a role in his campaign? "We have the same concerns about the direction of the country. There is too much spending, too much government intrustion into our ecomony, too much debt, not enough in terms of our personal freedoms."

Gillespie used the Tea Party question as a way to tie Warner to Obamacare. Judging by the answer he is hoping Tea Party folks will support his campaign in big numbers. 

This is just the beginning of a long campaign. We will have plenty of time to get this new candidate's take on a whole host of issues. 

Stay tuned. 

Cantor launches hit against primary opponent Brat

By: Ryan Nobles

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Henrico) continues to insist that he is not paying much attention to his upcoming primary fight against Randolph Macon professor Dr. David Brat, but a few recent moves suggest otherwise.

Cantor last night launched an attack ad against Brat, mocking his profession and accusing his challenger of helping former Governor Tim Kaine (D) propose a significant tax increase on the Virginia citizens.

First, here is a look at the ad:

 

In addition to the ad, the Cantor campaign unveiled a website designed to paint Brat as a liberal college professor not the conservative crusader he claims to be.

The attack line is not a new one from Cantor. His team sent out a fundraising e-mail shortly after Brat announced describing him as a liberal and tying him to Kaine. However this is the first public and targeting attack against Brat and one designed to specifically reach out to conservative primary voters who will go to the polls on June 10th. The ad was seen last night during the 10pm hour of Fox News Channel. 

Brat called the Cantor ad an outright lie. He never served on a "Council of Economic Advisors" as the ad claims and he also said he never recommended that Kaine raise taxes to balance the budget during the economic downturn at the end of 2009 into 2010.

"Eric Cantor is out of control on this one," Brat said in an e-mail. " This is why I am running. DC has corrupted our language and our truth and our political system."

According to the website designed to support the ad, the Cantor campaign shows the resolution where Brat was appointed to serve on Cantor's "Board of Economists" in 2006.  The web site then follows up with several Kaine moves as governor that occurred while Brat served on that board.

At no point is there any direct evidence that Brat supported Kaine's effort to raise taxes. The web site and the ad simply claim Brat made no effort to publicly rebut Kaine's plans.

But perhaps more important is the effort by the Cantor team to engage and specifically target Brat. In a recent interview with me, Cantor went out of his way not to acknowledge his primary opponent. To spend money directly attacking him in a primary indicates the House Majority Leader is taking no chances.

The ad and web site are not paid for by a third party group, they come directly from "Cantor for Congress."

Cantor is not one to underestimate any opponent. He has a substantial campaign coffer and is not afraid to spend money on advertising and campaign staff even when his opponents are considered lightweights. Usually though, his ads are all positive and tout his accomplishments. It is rare for him to take a direct hit on a challenger.

Meanwhile Brat continues to push Cantor to meet him face to face in a debate. Something the Cantor campaign remains resistant to.

Warner targeted in RNC web ad attack

By: Ryan Nobles

Senator Mark Warner (D) is among a handful of democratic incumbents being targeted by the Republican National Committee (RNC) over a controversial finding by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) related to Affordable Care Act.

 

The CBO predicted as many as two million people will leave the workforce in order to take advantage of cheaper healthcare through Obamacare. 

NBC12 was given a sneak peek of a web ad before it is officially launched Wednesday. 

The RNC produced the ad that will hit seven democrats up for re-election, including Warner, who voted for Obamacare. It will be a running theme throughout the campaign as the GOP attempts to win back the Senate by tying incumbents in moderate states to the law that has had a bumpy introduction. 

Warner did vote for Obamacare, but has offered lukewarm support during its rollout. He has called for changes to the application and implementation process. 

The RNC picks loosely from the CBO report and accuses Obamacare of leading to "fewer workers and smaller paychecks." The claim on its face is a bit misleading. Workers won't necessarily lose their jobs. The CBO report says many will choose to seek other employment options because they won't be forced to say in their current jobs just to guarantee health coverage. 

The Washington Post Fact Check rated a more direct, but similar hit by the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has having "Three Pinocchio's." 

Here is the ad:

 

Most anaylsts don't view Warner as being in any trouble, but the GOP seems prepared to dust him up whenever they get the chance. He has a credible potential challenger in former Bush aide and RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, but prognosticators like UVA's Larry Sabato still rate Virginia as "likely D" in their analysis. 

Two early polls seemed to indicate that Gillespie's chances of upseting Warner were slim, but a new survey from the republican firm Harper Polls, released to POLITICO shows the Republican closing to within 6 points of the Democrat. 

Republicans are trying to convince voters that Warner is vulnerable and they are betting that Obamacare is the issue to put him in the danger zone. 

"These seven Senators supported President Obama and his disastrous healthcare law, and they must be held accountable for discouraging people from working,” said RNC Chairman Reince Priebus. 

The ad is more than just a YouTube clip. The RNC did purchase a targeted internet buy designed to reach likely voters. Their digital team will also push the clips on social media as well. 

Gillespie to officially jump into the race to challenge Warner

BY: Ryan Nobles

Former Republican National Committee Chairman and George W. Bush confidante Ed Gillespie (R) will announce his plans to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) in the race for U.S. Senate today.

Gillespie's plans are not a surprise, he has been mulling a run for several weeks. A source will direct knowledge of the candidate's plans confirms to NBC12 that Gillespie will launch a website Thursday formally announcing his intention to run.

Gillespie will not hold a formal press conference today, but instead will begin working his way around the Commonwealth, meeting with activists in preparation for the June convention in Roanoke that will decide the party's nominee.

Two other republicans have announced their plans to seek the nomination. Howie Lind, a Navy Veteran and 10th Congressional District Republican Committee Chairman and businessman Shak Hill.

While Gillespie is well known in political circles and has the potential to raise a lot of money, his challenge to Warner is still considered a long shot. Warner is still very popular with voters and will have a significant fund raising war chest of his own.

However, Gillespie's entry into the race makes the U.S. Senate campaign in Virginia far more competitive than anyone had originally anticipated.

We will keep you updated as to when the Gillespie web site is formally launched.

UPDATE:

Gillespie's campaign is officially underway. Here is opening video announcement:

 

Gillespie's campaign website is now up at: www.edforsenate.com.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reacted quickly to he Gillespie announcement calling him a career lobbyist and tying him to President Bush:

“Ed Gillespie’s campaign is based on a false and dishonest premise – not surprising given Gillespie’s background as a Washington special interest lobbyist and ultra-partisan Washington spin doctor.  The truth is that Mark Warner is recognized by both Democrats and Republicans as a leader in the Senate in working across party lines to achieve common sense solutions, and Virginians won’t be fooled by the negative campaign of Gillespie and his special interest allies.

“When Virginians get to know Ed Gillespie, they won’t like what they see.  He was Enron’s go-to guy in Washington, and the paid lobbyist for other special interests whose agenda was out of step with the interests of Virginians.  He is a hypocrite on health care reform who was a lead lobbyist for an individual mandate. He was the mouthpiece for the Bush Administration policies that turned a surplus into a deficit and left our economy in shambles.

“The last thing Virginians need in Washington is a career lobbyist with a partisan history of slash-and-burn politics that divides Virginians.” -Matt Canter, Deputy Executive Director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

Brat aims to make the economy the focus in challenge of Cantor

BY: Ryan Nobles

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Henrico) has had challengers before. Most of them he has easily swatted away. Dr. David Brat, an often quoted economics professor from Randolph Macon College hopes he is different. 

Brat launched a challenge to Cantor today with events across Central Virginia (two of which were actually held outside of the 7th congressional district).  Brat had been planning a run against Cantor for sometime- he signaled his intentions to NBC12 before the holidays. 

His official announcement, given to the conservative National Review sent ripples through the beltway media. 

But even if Brat can impress Washington, D.C. conservatives, it is people here in Central Virginia he will have to convince. It is a group that has solidly supported Cantor long enough for him to rise to a very powerful position in Congress. 

We asked Brat about the challenge he has in front of him Thursday on NBC12 First at 4:

 

Among Brat's many challenges will be running against a GOP establishment solidly behind Cantor. That includes people Brat has worked with in the past. He has served as a policy advisor to Sen. Walter Stosch. Stosch considers both men friends but told me that he will support Cantor over Brat. 

Here is what Stosch told me about the primary race:

 

Brat argues that while Cantor is powerful, he hasn't been using the powers to benefit his constituents. He is hoping to make the case that his economic views will do more to reign in the country's sky rocketing debt and deficits. 

While he is pushing Cantor from the right, his focus will not be social issues as is traditionally the case in GOP primaries. Expect his campaign to present Brat as an intellectual Tea Party alternative to Cantor. 

At the very least, it should be fun to watch. Stay tuned.