Decision Virginia

Carr reaching out to voters unhappy with both parties

By: Ryan Nobles

The race for congress in Virginia's 7th District has already been unpredictable and the man running for the post on the libertarian line is hoping the unsettled nature of the contest keeps going. 

James Carr, a health care administrator and consultant, is hoping to forge a moderate movement and is targeting voters unhappy with republicans and democrats. 

Carr joined me live on NBC12 First at Four Monday and gave us a snapshot of the type of campaign he hopes to run. 

As an example of how he is different- Carr supports the full privatization of Social Security, but also believes gay marriage should be legal. 

Holding both of those positions at the same time is rare and Carr believes there are more people who are like him who don't adhear to the hard line platform of the two major parties. 

He will have un uphill battle no doubt. Even though the 7th district surprised us on primary night, it is still reliably red. It will certainly be more predicatble in a general election than it was during a primary. 

You can see Carr's entire interview from First at 4 below:

 

Republican Dave Brat appeared on First at 4 shortly after announcing his campaign. He has been invited back in the wake of his primary victory. 

Democrat Jack Trammel also has an invitation to appear on the program. 

Warner takes cautious approach on Bergdahl

By: Ryan Nobles

As the situation with the return of Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl continues to become more complex and more political, Sen. Mark Warner (D) has decided to take a measured approach. 

Bergdahl was safely returned to U.S. custody over the weekend. His rescue started as a story of American courage in the face of adversity and has quickly spiraled into a political controversy. 

Republicans and some Democrats have reacted harshly to President Barack Obama's decision to secure Bergdahl's release by exchanging five leaders of the Taliban from the U.S. Military prison at Guantanamo Bay. Not only is the decision being questioned but the tactics as well. The president did not provide Congress with the details of the exchange which is required by law. 

Complicating the matter is the questionable conduct of Bergdhal as a soldier. He is receiving harsh criticism from many of his former comrades who have accused him of deserting his post and leaving them in danger. 

Sen. Warner is in a unique position on this issue. He sits on the Select Senate Committee on Intelligence and was part of a confidential briefing on the Bergdahl matter on Tuesday. While other members of that committee have not shied away from voicing their concern about the administration's approach, Warner is waiting to learn more. 

"I'm glad that this American has been freed," Warner said. "I think there are questions about this Sargeant's behavior as Gen. Dempsey the chairman of the joint chief of staff said that will be dealt with in the normal chain of command."

Warner, like his fellow Democrat Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), did say that he was concerned that the White House did not inform the Congress of their plans. However he was quick to point out that the circumstances related to the Bergdahl situation keep changing. Thursday, the Associated Press reported that the Taliban threatened to kill the soldier if the President consulted Congress.

Virginia's senior sentor plans to hold off on judgement until he learns the entire story.

"I do believe in the normal course that the law should be followed and that congress should be notified," he said.  "But this new information is just coming out, I think it's better from at least this Senator, I'm going to hold final comments until we get all the facts."

You can see Warner's comments below:

 

Brat attempts to pull off the impossible

By: Ryan Nobles 

Dr. David Brat (R) went from mild mannered college professor in sleepy Ashland, VA a place that ironically dubs itself to the "Center of the Universe",  to the center of the cauldron of national politics in a matter of weeks. 

Brat is challenging House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in the GOP primary for Virginia's 7th District. He is not well known, not well financed and is taking on the most powerful Republican in Virginia and one of the most powerful politicians in America.

It is not going too far to say that Brat is hoping to pull off the impossible. 

 

(Brat with talk show host Laura Ingraham)

Even if he falls short of an upset, in fact even if he gets destroyed next Tuesday, Brat has already had an impact. There is no question he has pushed Cantor to the right on issues like immigration and exposed a weakness in the longtime congressman's connection to the ardent Tea-Party wing of the party.  

But while Brat throws accusations at Cantor and the one time Young Gun's political team returns fire with a nuclear weapons sized gauntlet of negative ads, not much has been reported about Brat the candidate and Brat the man. 

Dave Brat was born in the midwest and attended college in Michigan. He has a Master's degree in divinity from Princeton and earned his PHd in economics from American University. He has been a professor at Randolph Macon since 1996. 

While Brat has always had an interest in government his experience in direct elective politics is minimal. He put his name in for nomination to replace former Del. Bill Janis for the House of Delegates in 2011 but lost out to the current Del. Peter Ferrall. He has also has served as an adviser to Hanover State Senator Walter Stoch.

Brat has always been on the right of the political spectrum, but as a college professor he finds himself in a weird position. He is undoubtedly the most conservative person at most of his academic cocktail parties, but in a primary for congress in the Republican party he can be tagged as a "liberal" in negative tv ads. 

Brat is a pure supply side economic conservative. He trusts the market's invisible hand and believes the less government intervention the better. He would also be a pretty reliable vote for most social conservatives, but he certainly isn't looking to make that his calling card. 

While Brat has accepted and appreciates the support he has received from Tea Party loyalists in the 7th district, the candidate himself wouldn't go so far as to attach himself to that label. 

What Brat is hoping to present himself as is a classic Republican. A candidate and eventually congressman who adheres to the GOP creed and will go to Washington to shake up the establishment, but not become a part of it. The message has resonated with national conservative talk show hosts, like Laura Ingraham who held a rally that drew more than 600 people to a country club literally in Eric Cantor's neighborhood. 

But just how far has that message gone?  Is it enough to convince voters to dump a man like Cantor who wields incredible influence and is in line to become the next Speaker of the House?

Probably not. But in an unpredictable primary- of which zero polling data has been made public- we have no idea what to expect. 

Here is Jessica Jaglois's story from the Ingraham Rally from Tuesday night for NBC12:

HENRICO, VA (WWBT) - A local candidate for Congress is getting support from a national radio host. Conservative pundit Laura Ingraham was in Henrico Tuesday night at a rally for Dave Brat.

Brat is taking on one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress: incumbent Eric Cantor, who's held the 7th District Seat since 2001. So, it's an uphill battle for the college professor turned politician.

So will Ingraham's support turn into votes for Dave Brat? He and his supporters are counting on it.

At the rally, held at the Dominion Club in Glen Allen, Ingraham said she wants Central Virginia and the country to know that she's a member of "The Brat Pack."

Congressional candidate Dave Brat is behind in fundraising and relatively unknown, especially compared to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

"Dave Brat is someone with integrity and great courage to take on the Washington establishment," she said. "As far as I can tell, the only thing Eric Cantor is known for right now is his name, his money and the fact that he has a huge amount of backing from big business."

Brat has been a professor at Randolph-Macon for nearly twenty years. He went to seminary school and has a PhD in economics. He's also served two Governors on the Joint Advisory Board of Economics.

Still, he's the underdog in a race that seemingly has Cantor's name written on it.

"There's a rule for the big shots and then there's a whole other set of rules for the average person," he said. "I've been that average person."

Brat says, that's what America needs, which Ingraham echoes fervently. For the Republican allies, they say the time for change is now.

"It's not personal," Brat said. "I'm not running against Eric Cantor but I'm running against folks who stay up there too long and turn from the District to represent folks up in DC."

... you and read and see Jessica's full story on NBC12.com.

UPDATE: Ingraham responded to our story with the following tweet:

 

Better Q: Could @HouseLeader Cantor get 600+ to rally for him? Why is Cantor avoiding townhalls? @ryanobles @DaveBratVA7th #Silence

— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) June 4, 2014

 

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We will profile Rep. Eric Cantor on Friday on NBC12 and DecisionVirginia.com 

Gillespie sidesteps Ryan budget- touts "legal status" on immigration reform

By: Ryan Nobles

Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie is playing it safe in the run up to his heated race for U.S. Senate against incumbent Mark Warner (D).

As the candidate dips his toe into a full blown campaign, he is sticking to talking points as he wades through a convention challenge leading up to the fall campaign. 

Gillespie chose NBC12 as his first live local television interview and we got the chance to press him on some of the key issues voters will be using to make their choice in not only November but in the convention in June. 

We asked him about the role of the Tea Party in his campaign, his thoughts on immigration reform and how he would vote on the proposed House Budget authored by former Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan. 

You can see the full interview below:

 

Would he vote YES or NO on the Ryan Budget?- "There are things in Paul Ryan's plan that I think are good, there are things I would have some concerns about, but I think the most important thing is that he puts us on a path to a balanced budget." 

He never gave us a Yes or N0, but it seems from his answer that he is not fully supportive of the plan in his current form. He attempted to use the question as a way to wrap the current Senate from avoiding presenting a budget of their own. 

Would he support a path to citizenship as part of immigration reform? "I think we do need to come to terms with some form of legal status. But I think the people who have come here legally and played by the rules it wouldn't be fair to them to confer citizenship on people who have not done that. But I do think it is unlikely that we are going to have a mass deportation of some 10-12 million people." 

 Immigration is always a sticky issue for Republicans in particular. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R) who is mulling a run for president ran into heat from the party's right wing for suggesting that some who enter the country illegally do so out of an "act of love".  The controversy is not reserved to national members of the GOP. The Republican Party of Virginia's new Executive Director took all kinds of heat from immigration reform foes for taking a meeting with pro-immigration reform advocates. 

Gillespie is trying to walk a fine line. Deal with the reality that is 15-20 million illegal immigrants, but stop short of offering full citizenship and instead create a new class of "legal status". We will see how that plays with the party hard- cores. 

..speaking of the party hard-cores

Will the Tea Party play a role in his campaign? "We have the same concerns about the direction of the country. There is too much spending, too much government intrustion into our ecomony, too much debt, not enough in terms of our personal freedoms."

Gillespie used the Tea Party question as a way to tie Warner to Obamacare. Judging by the answer he is hoping Tea Party folks will support his campaign in big numbers. 

This is just the beginning of a long campaign. We will have plenty of time to get this new candidate's take on a whole host of issues. 

Stay tuned. 

Cantor launches hit against primary opponent Brat

By: Ryan Nobles

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Henrico) continues to insist that he is not paying much attention to his upcoming primary fight against Randolph Macon professor Dr. David Brat, but a few recent moves suggest otherwise.

Cantor last night launched an attack ad against Brat, mocking his profession and accusing his challenger of helping former Governor Tim Kaine (D) propose a significant tax increase on the Virginia citizens.

First, here is a look at the ad:

 

In addition to the ad, the Cantor campaign unveiled a website designed to paint Brat as a liberal college professor not the conservative crusader he claims to be.

The attack line is not a new one from Cantor. His team sent out a fundraising e-mail shortly after Brat announced describing him as a liberal and tying him to Kaine. However this is the first public and targeting attack against Brat and one designed to specifically reach out to conservative primary voters who will go to the polls on June 10th. The ad was seen last night during the 10pm hour of Fox News Channel. 

Brat called the Cantor ad an outright lie. He never served on a "Council of Economic Advisors" as the ad claims and he also said he never recommended that Kaine raise taxes to balance the budget during the economic downturn at the end of 2009 into 2010.

"Eric Cantor is out of control on this one," Brat said in an e-mail. " This is why I am running. DC has corrupted our language and our truth and our political system."

According to the website designed to support the ad, the Cantor campaign shows the resolution where Brat was appointed to serve on Cantor's "Board of Economists" in 2006.  The web site then follows up with several Kaine moves as governor that occurred while Brat served on that board.

At no point is there any direct evidence that Brat supported Kaine's effort to raise taxes. The web site and the ad simply claim Brat made no effort to publicly rebut Kaine's plans.

But perhaps more important is the effort by the Cantor team to engage and specifically target Brat. In a recent interview with me, Cantor went out of his way not to acknowledge his primary opponent. To spend money directly attacking him in a primary indicates the House Majority Leader is taking no chances.

The ad and web site are not paid for by a third party group, they come directly from "Cantor for Congress."

Cantor is not one to underestimate any opponent. He has a substantial campaign coffer and is not afraid to spend money on advertising and campaign staff even when his opponents are considered lightweights. Usually though, his ads are all positive and tout his accomplishments. It is rare for him to take a direct hit on a challenger.

Meanwhile Brat continues to push Cantor to meet him face to face in a debate. Something the Cantor campaign remains resistant to.

Warner targeted in RNC web ad attack

By: Ryan Nobles

Senator Mark Warner (D) is among a handful of democratic incumbents being targeted by the Republican National Committee (RNC) over a controversial finding by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) related to Affordable Care Act.

 

The CBO predicted as many as two million people will leave the workforce in order to take advantage of cheaper healthcare through Obamacare. 

NBC12 was given a sneak peek of a web ad before it is officially launched Wednesday. 

The RNC produced the ad that will hit seven democrats up for re-election, including Warner, who voted for Obamacare. It will be a running theme throughout the campaign as the GOP attempts to win back the Senate by tying incumbents in moderate states to the law that has had a bumpy introduction. 

Warner did vote for Obamacare, but has offered lukewarm support during its rollout. He has called for changes to the application and implementation process. 

The RNC picks loosely from the CBO report and accuses Obamacare of leading to "fewer workers and smaller paychecks." The claim on its face is a bit misleading. Workers won't necessarily lose their jobs. The CBO report says many will choose to seek other employment options because they won't be forced to say in their current jobs just to guarantee health coverage. 

The Washington Post Fact Check rated a more direct, but similar hit by the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has having "Three Pinocchio's." 

Here is the ad:

 

Most anaylsts don't view Warner as being in any trouble, but the GOP seems prepared to dust him up whenever they get the chance. He has a credible potential challenger in former Bush aide and RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, but prognosticators like UVA's Larry Sabato still rate Virginia as "likely D" in their analysis. 

Two early polls seemed to indicate that Gillespie's chances of upseting Warner were slim, but a new survey from the republican firm Harper Polls, released to POLITICO shows the Republican closing to within 6 points of the Democrat. 

Republicans are trying to convince voters that Warner is vulnerable and they are betting that Obamacare is the issue to put him in the danger zone. 

"These seven Senators supported President Obama and his disastrous healthcare law, and they must be held accountable for discouraging people from working,” said RNC Chairman Reince Priebus. 

The ad is more than just a YouTube clip. The RNC did purchase a targeted internet buy designed to reach likely voters. Their digital team will also push the clips on social media as well. 

Gillespie to officially jump into the race to challenge Warner

BY: Ryan Nobles

Former Republican National Committee Chairman and George W. Bush confidante Ed Gillespie (R) will announce his plans to challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) in the race for U.S. Senate today.

Gillespie's plans are not a surprise, he has been mulling a run for several weeks. A source will direct knowledge of the candidate's plans confirms to NBC12 that Gillespie will launch a website Thursday formally announcing his intention to run.

Gillespie will not hold a formal press conference today, but instead will begin working his way around the Commonwealth, meeting with activists in preparation for the June convention in Roanoke that will decide the party's nominee.

Two other republicans have announced their plans to seek the nomination. Howie Lind, a Navy Veteran and 10th Congressional District Republican Committee Chairman and businessman Shak Hill.

While Gillespie is well known in political circles and has the potential to raise a lot of money, his challenge to Warner is still considered a long shot. Warner is still very popular with voters and will have a significant fund raising war chest of his own.

However, Gillespie's entry into the race makes the U.S. Senate campaign in Virginia far more competitive than anyone had originally anticipated.

We will keep you updated as to when the Gillespie web site is formally launched.

UPDATE:

Gillespie's campaign is officially underway. Here is opening video announcement:

 

Gillespie's campaign website is now up at: www.edforsenate.com.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reacted quickly to he Gillespie announcement calling him a career lobbyist and tying him to President Bush:

“Ed Gillespie’s campaign is based on a false and dishonest premise – not surprising given Gillespie’s background as a Washington special interest lobbyist and ultra-partisan Washington spin doctor.  The truth is that Mark Warner is recognized by both Democrats and Republicans as a leader in the Senate in working across party lines to achieve common sense solutions, and Virginians won’t be fooled by the negative campaign of Gillespie and his special interest allies.

“When Virginians get to know Ed Gillespie, they won’t like what they see.  He was Enron’s go-to guy in Washington, and the paid lobbyist for other special interests whose agenda was out of step with the interests of Virginians.  He is a hypocrite on health care reform who was a lead lobbyist for an individual mandate. He was the mouthpiece for the Bush Administration policies that turned a surplus into a deficit and left our economy in shambles.

“The last thing Virginians need in Washington is a career lobbyist with a partisan history of slash-and-burn politics that divides Virginians.” -Matt Canter, Deputy Executive Director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

Brat aims to make the economy the focus in challenge of Cantor

BY: Ryan Nobles

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Henrico) has had challengers before. Most of them he has easily swatted away. Dr. David Brat, an often quoted economics professor from Randolph Macon College hopes he is different. 

Brat launched a challenge to Cantor today with events across Central Virginia (two of which were actually held outside of the 7th congressional district).  Brat had been planning a run against Cantor for sometime- he signaled his intentions to NBC12 before the holidays. 

His official announcement, given to the conservative National Review sent ripples through the beltway media. 

But even if Brat can impress Washington, D.C. conservatives, it is people here in Central Virginia he will have to convince. It is a group that has solidly supported Cantor long enough for him to rise to a very powerful position in Congress. 

We asked Brat about the challenge he has in front of him Thursday on NBC12 First at 4:

 

Among Brat's many challenges will be running against a GOP establishment solidly behind Cantor. That includes people Brat has worked with in the past. He has served as a policy advisor to Sen. Walter Stosch. Stosch considers both men friends but told me that he will support Cantor over Brat. 

Here is what Stosch told me about the primary race:

 

Brat argues that while Cantor is powerful, he hasn't been using the powers to benefit his constituents. He is hoping to make the case that his economic views will do more to reign in the country's sky rocketing debt and deficits. 

While he is pushing Cantor from the right, his focus will not be social issues as is traditionally the case in GOP primaries. Expect his campaign to present Brat as an intellectual Tea Party alternative to Cantor. 

At the very least, it should be fun to watch. Stay tuned.