Decision Virginia

Suffolk University/NBC12 Poll: Decision Virginia remains a dead heat

The race is not over yet.

With just a little more than a month to go and all three presidential and one vice presidential debates still ahead of us, a new poll conducted by Suffolk University shows the race for the White House and U.S. Senate remains a virtual tie.

Several swing state polls show President Barack Obama begining to open up a sizeable lead, but here in Virginia it is still too close to call:

The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted between September 24-26th. Enough time for the full impact of the covert 47% video to have the opportunity to have an impact on people's decision. Despite the beating Mitt Romney has taken over the video, his standing in Virginia remains unchanged.

The poll has a 4% margin of error, meaning that the numbers are basically a tie.

And while the race for president is "basically" a tie, the U.S. Senate race actually is a tie:

A few recent polls showed the potential for Tim Kaine to perhaps pull ahead in this race, but our survey shows that he and George Allen remain locked in a razor thin battle. While the polls shows that most Virginians know both Allen and Kaine, there is still an astounding 12% of voters who have yet to make up their mind. Only 7% of respondents to the survey said they were undecided about the race for president.

You can see the full poll on Suffolk University's web site.

Here is pollster David Paleologos putting the numbers into perspective:

 

 Here is my story on the poll for NBC12:

We are getting a better idea of just how close the race for president is in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

NBC12 partnered with Suffolk University to conduct a poll on the election.

Most swing state polls show President Barack Obama opening up a sizable lead, but here in Virginia the race is a virtual tie. In Ohio, Florida and Colorado polls show President Obama taking control. But a new Suffolk University/ NBC12 poll shows that is not the case in Virginia.

In our poll President Obama is holding on to a slim 2 point lead. Roughly 7% of Virginia voters are still undecided and pollster David Paleologos believes the president still has work to do.

"I can tell you with a high degree of confidence this is a close race, this is not a landslide for Barack Obama," he said.

But the news for Mitt Romney is not all good.

Votes still like President Obama more than they do the republican nominee. More than 52% view Obama favorably, while only 42% feel that way about Romney. More voters have a negative opinion of Romney than a positive one. 

According to Paleogolos, being liked has never been the president's problem.

“People are saying they like Barack Obama more than Mitt Romney,” he explained.

It is Obama’s work as president that some aren't comfortable with. In fact 48% of the respondents in this poll disapprove of the way obama is doing his job. Only 46% believe he is doing a good job. 

Things are even tighter in the race for U.S. Senate.

Our numbers show Tim Kaine and George Allen locked at 44% each.

The favorability numbers for the two former governors is roughly the same, both in the 40% range.

Palegolos believes both races could come down to turnout.

“Anybody can win this state, and there is not going to be a landslide win in either race,” he said.  “Either the U.S. Senate race or the Presidential race.”

read and see the full story on NBC12.com

NBC12.com - Richmond, VA News, Weather, Traffic  

After the jump you can read the full press release from Suffolk University after the jump:

Kaine and Allen leave lasting impression in third debate

Rarely do you leave a debate wondering what the long term impact might be. Usually you get a pretty good impression right away. But today's NBC4/Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce U.S. Senate debate was a tangle between two Virginia political titans that will take some time to see how it plays out.

(Moderator David Gregory with Tim Kaine and George Allen)

Tim Kaine and George Allen sparred on defense cuts, the economy, issues born out of the presidential race and their own careers in Washington and Richmond. However in a debate that was on TV, but only in the Washington, D.C. metro and in the middle of the day, it is the coverage of the event that will have the lasting impression and Tim Kaine had a moment in the debate that republicans are already promising to bring up from here on out.

It was a discussion on tax policy, based on GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney's comments about 47% of Americans who don't pay federal income tax. Moderator David Gregory pressed Kaine on his personal views of who should pay income taxes.

Here is a transcript of the exchange:

(Moderator David) GREGORY: Do you believe that everyone in Virginia should pay something in federal income tax?

KAINE: Well, everyone pays taxes, I mean, the statistics that have come out..

GREGORY: I'm asking about federal income taxes.

KAINE: I would be open to a proposal that would have some minimum tax level for everyone.

Kaine went on to layout the specifics of his tax policy. Later in the post debate gaggle he explained what he meant. He said he wasn't calling for a minimum across the board tax level, but instead showing that he was open to any possible suggestions for improving tax policy.

Here are his full remarks from the gaggle. (I apologize for our unfortunate camera position)

 

Later Kaine senior adviser Mo Elleithee defended his bosses his position in a lengthy blog post.  Saying in his opening line that the Kaine team was "pumped" about his performance.

Not surprisingly, republicans aren't impressed. They quickly posted the debate moment online and fired off a fundraising e-mail based on Kaine's comments.

Allen came to the post debate gaggle prepared to double down on Kaine's comments which play right into the GOP's claim that Kaine is a tax raiser:

 

It is doubtful that this relatively minor slip by Kaine will alter the course of this race dramatically. However, recent polls showed the direction of the race was heading in the democrat's favor. This slip will offer Allen's team more fodder on the tax issue, an issue republican's generally focus on and could swing undecided voters. A pool that in this race in particular is smaller and smaller.

Here is my full wrap on the debate for NBC12:

It doesn't get any bigger than this. Virginia's race for the U.S. senate is one of the most watched in the country.

 Thursday, two commonwealth political titans, George Allen and Tim Kaine, met in their first televised debate. The race was on TV, but only in the Washington, D.C. metro area and in the middle of the day, so the vast majority of likely voters didn't see what happened.

Instead they will be left with the lingering sound bites, and Tim Kaine gave one that republicans are already pouncing on.

It was a debate filled with plenty of substance. Allen and Kaine giving their take on things like defense cuts.

"He (Allen) is on more sides of this than a Rubix Cube," said Kaine while discussing Allen’s position on the congressional showdown over the sequestration budget.

On foreign policy, Allen was critical of the Obama administration and talked tough on the situation in the Middle East.

"The biggest threat I think is Iran,” Allen said. “If Iran gets nuclear weapons that needs to be prevented."

But it was a comment Kaine made on taxes inside that Capital One building in McLean that Allen was quick to pounce on afterward. Here is an exact transcript:

(Moderator David) GREGORY: Do you believe that everyone in Virginia should pay something in federal income tax?

KAINE: Well, everyone pays taxes, I mean, the statistics that have come out..

GREGORY: I'm asking about federal income taxes.

KAINE: I would be open to a proposal that would have some minimum tax level for everyone.

Kaine made the point after a lengthy discussion born out of Mitt Romney's comments about 47 percent of Americans not paying federal income tax. Allen wasn't surprised.

"It is typical of Tim Kaine,” Allen said.  “As I mentioned his record is one of always looking to raise taxes."

Kaine argued that he wasn't calling for a minimum across the board tax, but rather showing that he is open to any suggestions.

"I don't think it should be that newsworthy that a Senator would consider what a colleague proposes," Kaine said with a chuckle.

A characteristic the democrat believes is lacking in his opponent.

"We need more bridge builders,” Kaine said during the debate. “We need more people who know how to listen and find common ground."

read and see the rest of the story on NBC12.com

NBC12.com - Richmond, VA News, Weather, Traffic

How will the Ryan pick impact Virginia?

It is hard to argue with Virginia prominence in the 2012 presidential election. The fact that presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney chose to unveil his running mate here shows that this is one of a select few battleground states, where both campaigns will be dedicating all their resources.

It is not just republicans, remember President Barack Obama launched his re-election in a two part stop in Ohio and Virginia.

However after the tour buses have left town, the pick of Paul Ryan will need to continue to encourage and motivate GOP Virginia voters to get to the polls in what will be a razor sharp election. Initially there are some things to look for in the Ryan pick.

McDonnell disappointment: When your state's governor comes close to the prize it can be a bit of a letdown when he isn't picked. However despite the build-up and the well placed rumor mill that gave the Virginia governor a sliver of hope last week, it doesn't appear that Bob McDonnell was ever in the top tier of candidates. Virginia went through a similar experience in 2008 when Tim Kaine was in the final running but eventually Barack Obama went it in a different direction. It didn't keep democrats away from the polls, and Kaine is still very much in the thick of things as a candidate for U.S. Senate.  Also- McDonnell's connection to Romney may not be done just yet. He will continue to stump for him across the country and be expected to help deliver Virginia. There could be a Romney Administration position waiting for him just yet.

Cantor connection: This may be the untold story of the election to this point. Rep. Eric Cantor is very close to Paul Ryan. The two wrote a book together and formed a coalition in the House of Representatives called the "Young Guns". Cantor and Ryan come from the same budget view of low taxes and deep budget cuts and if Romney and Ryan are successful it stands to reason that Cantor's influence in the White House would be strong. Earlier this year, Cantor told NBC's Luke Russert that he thought Ryan would make a good candidate for president.

Allen impact: The one Virginia republican who may have the most difficult time with the Ryan selection is U.S. Senate candidate George Allen. Allen hasn't necessarily been running arm and arm with the Romney campaign, but he will be with the new ticket at all three stops in Virginia today. Allen has in the past been very complimentary of Ryan as a congressman, but got into a bit of a spot during his primary campaign when he refused to endorse the controversial Ryan budget plan. His GOP primary opponents were pushing him hard to say he would vote yes, while democrats were pushing him just to take a stance. Allen never budged and at this point his ambivalence hasn't had any measureable impact on his campaign. That could change now that Ryan has taken such a big part of the spotlight.

Virginia voters: It will take some time to see how the Ryan pick will be taken by Commonwealth voters. For the most part, the mid western republican is largely unknown here. However, Virginia voters have been very deliberate in their selections over the past decade. They have swung back and forth pretty consistently between democrats and republicans in statewide votes when they thought the candidate deserved to win. Don't expect Virginia voters to be swayed by the ways Ryan is characterized by attack ads and flowery platitudes. He will get a serious vetting of his performance and their decision may decide the election.

Finally in case you missed it.. the introduction of Ryan got off to a bit of a rocky start when Romney "promoted" him to the position he is looking for.

 

See the full story on NBC12.com.