Decision Virginia

#VaGov post election takeaways

I just wrapped up my annual trip to the NBC12 morning show and taked about some of the surprises from this year's election. 

If you missed my segment you can see it here. 

 

Some quick takeaways: 

The only poll that counts is election day- How often do we hear candidates say just that and just dismiss the claim? Tuesday night was a perfect example of how it doesn't matter how many different ways pollsters sample the electorate the only way to know for sure who your next elected leader will be is to count the votes. The Real Clear Politics average of polling leading up to last night gave Terry McAuliffe a comfortable margin leading into the vote last night. As the returns came in, it was anything but comfortable. That was part of the reason that I predicted he could win by as much as 8% (I was wrong). 

To their credit, the McAuliffe team never suggested this race was going to be anything but close. They were confident they could win, but knew it would be tight. 

Recount on the way? The numbers keep changing, but it is a distinct possibility that we won't know for more than a month who the next Attorney General of Virginia is. At 6:46am as I post this story Mark Herring (D) leads by a little more than 500 votes. That is less than the .05% margin that would force localities to pay for a recount, should Mark Obenshain (R) ask for one. 

Virginia has been through this before. The last Attorney General elected by a razor thin margin after a lengthy recount is in the Governor's mansion. That was only eight years ago. 

Could Richmond be the new Washington? <Everyone groans> Yes, Virginia's governing body is set to have the same exact make up as what we see at the Nation's Capitol. It is that same set up that is causing massive dysfunction and leading to government shutdowns. Tuesday night everyone was talking a good game. McAuliffe said during his victory speech that he plans to work with both parties and will reach out to all the Republicans in the House of Delegates. House Majority Leader Kirk Cox (R- Colonial Heights) said during our special digital broadcast that no one on his side of the aisle wants Richmond to become Washington and they are ready to compromise. 

Richmond has it's fair share of conservative and tea party members of the General Assembly and McAuliffe has proposed ambitious and expensive plans, most notably an expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.  While everyone claims to be ready to come to the table, if McAuliffe comes ready to start marking off his campaign promises he could be in for a rough road in January.

Who will challenge Mark Warner? Virginia now moves right into ANOTHER statewide election so who wil.... okay I won't do that quite yet, I'll give you a break.. ha ha.. 

We will continue to keep an eye on the Attorney General's race and talk more about the new McAuliffe administration in the days ahead. Stay tuned. 

My prediction: Democrats will sweep on Election Day

When I decided to go out on a limb and make a prediction for the election results in 2012 the race was tight and the outcome not apparent. 

Especially in Virginia. 

Such is not the case in 2013. 

(Team McAuliffe is confident heading into Election day/Photo from his FB page)

While the race for Governor of Virginia was expected to be a slugfest that was close right until the end, things shifted in a pretty dramatic way in late August. There have been polls that have shown the margin to be as high as 15 points and as low as 4 points, but truly Terry McAuliffe (D) has held a stable 6-8 point lead since late summer and there is nothing to indicate the results won't be any different Tuesday night when the polls close. 

This is how I think the returns will come in. I emphasize this is not necessarily my personal preference, it has nothing to do with how the campaigns were run or the candidate's stances on specific issues. This is simply an analysis of public polling and my assessment of the public's mood in general. 

Governor: Terry McAuliffe 51% Ken Cuccinelli 43% Robert Sarvis 6%

The most unpredictable variable in any off year election is turnout and low turnout is the only key to a Cuccinelli victory. In my estimation the Democrats have been concerned about low turnout since the day after their losing effort in 2009 and have since had a hellbent obsession with getting their voters to the polls. 

Instead of distancing themselves from the Obama machine in 2009, the McAuliffe campaign has adopted it wholesale and added their own twist in certain areas. They have micro-targeted voters they have been monitoring since early 2008 down to such a rigid science that they are aware of not only the voting households that support their candidate, but the people within those households who they know are with them. They have then gone about on a historic GOTV effort that will see them contacting more voters in the last weekend of the vote than the Deeds campaign did in the ENTIRE 2009 campaign. 

In just four days the McAuliffe team will either knock on the door or make a phone call to some 600 thousand Virginia voters. And not only are these voters, they are voters they are sure are inclined to vote for their candidate. 

While I believe the McAuliffe model is solid and that they have the financial resources to pull it off, I don't believe it will be enough to over perform polling. While McAuliffe has steadily improved his favorability numbers, the last Quinnipiac Poll released Monday morning shows he still has a negative favorability rating of -3. Even if you contact all those voters, it will be tough to motivate people who just like the other guy a little less than your guy to get out to vote on Tuesday. 

We also have the unpredictable element of a third party candidate. Robert Sarvis's polling has been steady and strong, but he has virtually no get out the vote effort. A campaign official within one of two major party operations believes the lowest Sarvis could pull is 5%. I agree. However I think he falls short of the magic 10% threshold and I don't think when the dust settles that his candidacy will have had an impact on the result between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli. 

I believe the Sarvis voter stays home if he were not in the race. 

That being said, a 6% showing in a race where the major party candidates will have spent close to $60 million and both have tremendous name ID will be a monumental and historic finish. 

Lt. Governor: Ralph Northam 53% E.W. Jackson 43% (4% won't vote)

This is far and away the easiest race to predict. Bishop E.W. Jackson could not escape the spectre of his previous controversial statements and despite his best effort to clarify his record he did not have the resources or the time to overcome the damage. 

The LG race might best be described in one ad done by the Northam team that has been airing pretty consistently in many markets. It pulls a section from Jackson's book where he describes birth defects as a punishment for sin. It features a mom with a child with a birth defect who emotionally calls Jackson's statement offensive. It is a devastating ad- and while it may not tell the whole story of Jackson's position, he never even approached the resources necessary to rebut that claim and the many others lodged against him.  

This race will be the first to be called Tuesday night. 

Attorney General: Mark Herring 50% Mark Obenshain 48% (2% won't vote) 

There is no question this will be the race of the night and one that might take some time to call. 

I have pegged the margin of victory in the Governor's race that is insurmountable for the Republican Mark Obenshain to overcome at 7%. I think it is possible for him to still lose if McAuliffe's margin of victory is smaller than that, I believe it is impossible for him to win if it is more than that number. I believe McAuliffe will win by 8 points and as a result will take Herring with him. 

Herring was wise to stick close to the McAuliffe train and tie Obenshain to Cuccinelli as much as possible. He will benefit from the enormous democrat turnout effort and it won't hurt that the LG race will be a landslide. 

An Obenshain victory is much more likely than a Cuccinelli victory, but think of the odds like this: If this election were the Powerball lottery, Obenshain would need to correctly pick all 5 white powerballs correctly, but might sneak in if the red powerball doesn't come up right. Cuccinelli needs all 5 white powerballs and the red ball to win. 

It should be a good night to be a Democrat. 

See if I am right.. tune in to NBC12's special election night coverage. Wall to wall from 7-11pm! on air and on line.

The race for Lt. Governor: a contrast in personalities

In the race for Lt. Governor, the two parties nominated candidates that couldn't be more different. 

Dr. Ralph Northam is a soft spoken physician not prone to making waves. His opponent Bishop E.W. Jackson is a charismatic pastor, who seems to go out of his way to make an impression. 

Their campaign has been controversial and as a result it could be the one race that we learn the results to relatively early. 

Here is my profile on both candidates for NBC12:

RICHMOND (WWBT)- It has been one of the most controversial races of the 2013 campaign. The race for Lt. Governor features a quiet state senator against a charismatic pastor. Their war of words has made for an interesting campaign.

These two candidates couldn't be more different. The race has turned into a mandate on the republican, Bishop E.W. Jackson and his controversial past statements.

His opponent- Dr. Ralph Northam has just tried to stay out of the way.

Before he was a candidate, jackson was a popular- but controversial pastor in Chesapeake- who preached very directly on issues like abortion and homosexuality.

Statements he has tried to convince voters to not tie to his campaign.

"I'm not running to be the minister of Virginia," he said. "I'm running to be Lt. Governor of Virginia."

His opponent Ralph Northam- a pediatric neurologist from Norfolk- is one of those making sure voters understand exactly everything Jackson has said.

"We don't need people with this rigid ideology that just say no to everything," Northam said.

Northam and Jackson differ greatly on issues like abortion and gay rights. But both claim it will not be their focus if elected.

"I would have to say the top issue has to be the economy," said Jackson.

Northam agreed. 

 "The main objective is to have people wantin' to come to Virginia and have their business and that's what puts revenue into our coffers," he said.

Despite all their many differences, when it comes to touting their ability to govern- Jackson and Northam seem to say very similar things.

"I've been a unifier and uniter my entire life," said Jackson.  

"Whenever there is a piece of legislation that is good for Virginia it's done through compromise that is my reputation in the senate," said Northam

Read and see the full story on NBC12.com. 

Our full interview with Bishop E.W. Jackson can be found below:

You can read more about his stance on the issues on his campaign web site-

 

Our full interview with Ralph Northam can be found below:

You can read more about his specific stances on the issues on his campaign web site. 

 

NBC12: your Election Night destination

                                            

NBC12 and NBC12.com will be the place to turn to on Election Night 2013. We are excited to provide 4.5 straight hours of wall to wall election coverage and both television and on line. 

It will start at 7pm just as the polls close. We will have a special one hour broadcast that will air on TV and stream on NBC12.com. We will have live reports from the various campaign headquarters and have an up to the minute review of the returns as they come in. 

Then at 8pm we shift to a special digital-only broadcast. We'll continue to check in at the various polling locations and campaign headquarters, but will also bring in a roundtable of experts to discuss what we are seeing with the results and what it could mean about the outcome.  The digital-only broadcast is available streaming at NBC12.com and through the NBC12 mobile app. 

It is a perfect complement to whatever else you may be watching that night. Keep your phone or tablet handy with our livestream as your watch your favorite prime time programming. 

In addition to the NBC12 team in the field, the following experts will join me on set:

Pete Snyder- Snyder is the founder of the angel investment firm Disruptor Capital. He is the current Co-Finance Chair for Ken Cuccinelli's campaign for governor. Snyder also ran for the GOP nomination for Lt. Governor, losing on the final ballot at the state convention to the current nominee, E.W. Jackson. 

Ben Tribbett- Tribbett is a veteran democratic campaign consultant, serving as campaign manager to several Virginia congressional campaigns. Ben worked on over 25 different federal, state and local campaigns- including running a record of 7-1 defeating Republican incumbents as a Campaign Manager. He is perhaps best known as the author of the widely read liberal political blog, Not Larry Sabato. 

Jen Thompson- Thompson is a professor and the Director of External Relations at the Wilder School of Government at VCU. Thompson is a former national campaign and Capitol Hill staffer. She is frequently quoted on political issues by publications and media outlets across the country.

In addition to our three main guests, expect a few surprises as well as we will have cameras at all the important locations where voters and candidates will be on election night.

Our broadcast- which every part of will stream online uninterrupted- would be a great backdrop for election night parties that will need a constant flow of information on monitors at your event.

Please join us next Tuesday! 

**CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW TO DOWNLOAD THE NBC12 NEWS APP

Jackson defiant about past statements

Bishop E.W. Jackson, the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor of Virginia, has spent a lot of his campaign explaining himself. 

A position he believes is unfair. 

"There's been an effort to disqualify me because what I believe and what I've taught as a minister," Jackson said in an interview with NBC12, "Even though I've made clear repeatedly, that I will follow the Constitution."

Just this week, the pastor and attorney was once again put into a defensive posture when he told WUSA-TV in Washington, D.C. that he never said some very specific things during his ministry. Among the controversial statements was one that had to do with God's judgment of the military and another related to his view of homosexuals and their lifestyle. 

Jackson said he was trying to defend the statements within a broad context, but he didn't back down from them.  

In fact I asked him very specifically if he ever said the following passage related to homosexuals: 

"Their minds are perverted, they’re frankly very sick people psychologically, mentally and emotionally and they see everything through the lens of homosexuality. When they talk about love they’re not talking about love, they’re talking about homosexual sex. So they can’t see clearly." 

He told WUSA that he never said that.

When I presented it directly, he didn't deny that he said the words but argued that it was in the context of a spiritual discussion and has nothing to do with the type of Lt. Governor he would be. 

"I'm not running to be the minister of Virginia," he said.  "I'm running to be Lt. Governor of Virginia."

But as to the statement itself, Jackson provided no qualification or explanation. Instead he argued that if someone was honestly assessing what he had to say, they would understand he was explaining what the Bible says about the gay lifestyle. 

"Whether you agree with him or not you he was basically reflecting essentially what the scripture says about homosexuality," he said. 

Regardless, Jackson believes that his profession has been brought into the limelight in a way that no other candidate's professional background has. He thinks it is because he is a Christian and the left- in particular the liberal media- have purposely attacked him because of his faith. 

"All of the sudden because the left has this great antipathy to Bible believing Christians all of the sudden it is a big issue if you are a Christian," Jackson said.  "We don't know if you will bring those issues into office. Well people have always brought their world views into office."

Jackson connected his situation to the debate over the appointment of Tracy Thorne-Begland to the Richmond General District Court. Begland, who is openly gay, was serving as a Deputy Commonwealth's Attorney when he was tapped for the judgeship. Conservatives initially blocked his confirmation because of his outspoken advocacy against the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy in the U.S. Military. 

"When a homosexual judge was being considered for office- anybody who raised the question if whether he was going to bring his activism to office was considered out of bounds," Jackson said. "But all of the sudden my ministry is disqualifying me from serving as Lt. Gov." 

He contends when elected, he will be the Lt. Governor for all Virginians and has an easy way to know when to put his religon on the sideline. 

"The Constitution will draw that line," he said. 

You can see part of our interview with Jackson below. 

  

Our full interview with him will post tomorrow as part of our preview of the Lt. Governor's race. 

Candidates similar personally- dramatically differently politically- vie for Attorney General

It could be the race that keeps us up late on election night. 

The race for Attorney General features two men who have similar backgrounds and personal experience, but approach politics from vastly different ends of the political spectrum. 

Here is my profile on the race for NBC12:

RICHMOND (WWBT)-  It could turn out to be the most competitive race on Election Night.

Two veteran state senators are vying to become Virginia's next Attorney General. It is a position with enormous power, and an immense platform for the future.

Mark Herring and Mark Obenshain have a lot in common personally, but they couldn't be more different politically. That difference could end up deciding who will win this very competitive race.

When the race for governor has such compelling characters, it is easy for the candidates for Attorney General to get lost.

Obenshain- a state senator from Harrisonburg- and Herring a state senator from Loudon- know they won't have your attention for long, so when they do, they want to make an impression.

"Senator Obenshain would be a continuation of what we've seen of with Ken Cuccinelli," said Herring.

For Herring that means tying his opponent in every possible way to the man he hopes to replace. The democrat argues that Obenshain and Cuccinelli are allies, and he would continue the same style of leadership.

"We need an attorney general that is going to bring a mainstream approach, a pragmatic bi-partisan approach," he said.

But Obenshain rejects the idea that he is a Cuccinelli clone.

"I'm not running for ‘super legislator'," he said.  "I'm not going to be substituting my judgment for that of members of the general assembly"."

And Obenshain and herring both say that regardless of what they think- their job will be to defend the laws on books.

"The job of the attorney general is to defend and uphold the laws of the commonwealth of Virginia whether they agree with them or not," Obenshain said.  

read and see the full story on NBC12.com 

Here are our full interviews with both candidates:

Mark Herring (taped earlier this week)

See more on his specific policy positions on his campaign web site. 

 

 

Mark Obenshain (from a live broadcast July 12th)

See more on his specific policy positions on his campaign web site. 

 

Cuccinelli the "closer" ready for the final push

Despite a series of polls that show him behind, Ken Cuccinelli the GOP nominee for governor is keeping a positive attitude. 

He told me Wednesday night in a one on one interview that he is right where he wants to be. 

Cuccinelli made the case that voter turnout is completely unpredictable and despite having an enourmous financial disadvantage his team will be better on election day. 

That effort will make the difference. 

However- Democrats know the turnout game is important for them as well. 

Here is my story for NBC12:

CHESTERFIELD (WWBT)-  The governor's race appears to be tightening up.

A slew of new polls are out -- and a few of them show Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli gaining ground on Terry McAuliffe.

But is it too little too late?

Depending on which poll you look at- Cuccinelli is down by what amounts to a landslide- to within the margin of error.

"Well all those polls show us closing and we close very well," said Cuccinelli.

Indeed- Cuccinelli has come from behind before- but never facing the odds he is up against this time. He must overcome a monstrous financial disadvantage and an opponent with deep ties to powerful people.

"Terry McAuliffe is my friend," said former President Bill Clinton during a weekend trip to Richmond. "If he were 50 points behind I'd be here."

In addition to Clinton- President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden will stump for McAuliffe. Visits Cuccinelli believes work to his advantage.

"With the president coming this weekend that puts a focus on Obamacare, he said. "And we are perfectly happy to have a debate about that."

Heavy hitters come to town to drive voter turnout. And an unpredictable electorate makes the polls difficult to read.

"Whoever's voters show up win," said the Attorney General.

And that is the difference in the polls, some show more Democrats showing up, others show more republicans. It is a point Clinton drove home Sunday.

"It doesn't count if you are for 'em if you don't show," he warned.

read and see our full story on NBC12.com

Our full interview with Cuccinelli can be found below:

 

Cuccinelli defends the "Cuccinelli Compass"

The Washington Post is spending the last week of the campaign for governor of Virginia dropping potentially damaging story after story. 

First, it was this article on a failed trip to Cuba by Terry McAuliffe to sell Virginia wine, that the candidate still sold as a success. (To me in fact)

Then there was an article that went back and read a political newsletter sent out by Ken Cuccinelli on a regular basis designed to keep his constituents informed. It also served as a bully pulpit for Cuccinelli's conservative views. 

Here is a bit of Paul Schwartzman's report:

For years, he articulated that conservatism in the Cuccinelli Compass, honing a combative political persona and providing opponents with material that has now driven up his negative poll ratingsand lifted McAuliffe. At the same time, Cuccinelli has accused Democrats of turning him into a caricature, seeking to scare off voters by distorting and lying about his record as a state senator and Virginia’s attorney general.

read the full article here. 

We caught up with Cuccinelli Wednesday for a lengthy interview on a number of topics. 

Not surprisingly he had yet to read the Post's story. 

"I don't read the Washington Post so I haven't read the article," he said.

But he defended the spirit of the "Cuccinelli Compass" which he said was designed to give his constituents the real story of what was happening in Richmond. He said the regular updates, of which he said he has written"thousands", were unique in that they prepared voters for what was going to happen, not what had already occurred.  

"People get something out of it," he said.  "They get action items, they get something out of it."

He said this form of communication was "21st century" politics. 

The Post story also showed numerous examples of Cuccinelli calling some his opponents names and apparently mocking them. For instance he once referred to Hillary Clinton as “Scary-Liberal Lady".

Cuccinelli said the name calling was all in fun and everyone was a target. That included his co-workers and even himself. 

"I use humor in the Compass, and I tease people," he explained.  "I tease people I work with, I tease myself more than anybody else in the Compass. That is just a part of how I am. People can tease me back and I can live with it." 

The Attorney General said he used humor to make his point and make the newsletter more accessible to the average reader. He said those who have a problem with it, don't get the joke. 

"I think liberals don't have much of a sense of humor compared to conservatives," he said. "That is my personal experience. Of course they will get all huffy about me saying that which it self proves the point."

See that part of our interview below:

 

We will have much more from the GOP candidate for Governor tonight on 12 News at 11. 

We will post our full interview with him later tonight on Decision Virginia. 

#BuyingAVoice Third party group puts up big cash for Sarvis

Most of the third party money spent in the race for governor has been in support of the two major party candidates.

But in the last few days a big influx of cash has come in for the libertarian in the race. 

Robert Sarvis is getting help from a group who is hoping to give third party candidates across the country a boost. They want the revolution to start in Virginia. 

Here is a look at the ad:

 

The Purple PAC- is hoping to offer voters are third way. Candidates that are socially liberal but fiscally conservative. They think they've found their man in Virginia in Sarvis.

FEC documents show Purple PAC was founded by a former member of the Federal Election Commissioner Brad Smith and the libertarian think tank Cato Institute’s founder Ed Crane.

The Center for Public Integrity discovered that the group raised more than $500 thousand over the summer, from a small group of donors.

Richard Masson- a horse breeder from Kentucky and Jeffery Yass also of the Cato Institute donated $250 thousand.

DC businessman Phil Harvey gave $50 thousand, while New York City real estate mogul Howard Rich contributed $25 thousand.

There is no telling how much money Purple PAC currently has or where their additional funds are coming from. They are not required by law to disclose their donors.

According to a report in the Washington Post, Purple PAC planned on supporting Sarvis to the tune of $300,000.

Most of these donors have been supportive of Republicans in the past. In Virginia the Purple PAC is staying away from the GOP, and backing Sarvis.

Polls show Sarvis can use the help. He is hovering around double digits, and securing 10 percent in the future will make ballot access easier for libertarian candidates.

Here is our report from NBC12:

 

----------------------------------

Here is where we got our information:

*Purple PAC's FEC Filing (via/Center for the Public Integrity)

*Purple PAC on the FEC web site. 

*Story on Purple PAC from the Center for the Public Intergrity 

*Washington Post report on Purple PAC

 

Sarvis poised to make a big impact on Election Day

What type of voter is Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate for Governor hoping to attract? In a live interview on NBC12's First at 4, he made a populist case for his candidacy.

"I'm trying to be the candidate for the forgotten middle," Sarvis said. 

Sarvis is realistic about his chances a week from Tuesday, but he is the only candidate of the three that can lose and still make history. If his polling numbers turn into actual votes, he could put the libertarian party in rarefied political air. 

"I think it sends a very strong message, the libertarian party can get major party status under the law," he said.  "That increases the openness and competitivness of our political system and that injects more good ideas into the process."

You can sense a move by Sarvis to appeal to a wider swath of Virginia voters as his poll number approach double digits. This is no longer a campaign designed to send a message from a vocal minority. While Sarvis believes in libertarian principles, he's been hit by some on that part of the political spectrum who believe he isn't authentic enough.

It is clear that he hopes to set the stage for future third party candidates. In particular those hoping to forge a consensus by taking on popular social and economic positions from both the right and left.   

"I want to be the governor for all Virginians," he said. "Virginia voters are not all libertarians, I am going to govern from the center. I'm going to move policy in the right direction which is more freedom, more rule of law." 

On election night his hope is that this simmering movement he is now a part of, has life after next Tuesday. 

"There is a lot of things that we can do to move past the two party system and the dysfunction we've seen in Washington with the shutdown and in Richmond with the ever encroaching government in our private lives," he said. 

You can see Sarvis's entire interview below:

NBC12.com - Richmond, VA News