There was a lot Sen. Mark Warner said in our interview on NBC12 First at 4 today, but is what he refused to say that is perhaps the most telling. Asked directly to rule out a potential run for governor of Virginia in 2013, Warner changed the subjected and reiterated his desire to stay focused on the 2012 election.
He did not say that he was interested, but he certainly avoided saying that he was not interested.
Warner admitted that his work in the U.S. Senate is not always that fulfilling, but did say there is work left to be done.
"It's no newsflash that sometimes the work in the Senate frustrates me," Warner said. "But I have a job to do on debt and deficit, If we don't get that fixed, it won't matter whoever the mayor is, whoever the governor is, our country is going to be a lot less prosperous going forward."
See the full uncut interview, including his thoughts on the race for President and U.S. Senate below:
With just a little more than a month
to go and all three presidential and one vice presidential debates still
ahead of us, a new poll conducted by Suffolk University shows the race
for the White House and U.S. Senate remains a virtual tie.
Several swing state polls show President Barack Obama begining to open up a sizeable lead, but here in Virginia it is still too close to call:
The
poll of 600 likely voters was conducted between September 24-26th.
Enough time for the full impact of the covert 47% video to have the
opportunity to have an impact on people's decision. Despite the beating Mitt Romney has taken over the video, his standing in Virginia remains unchanged.
The poll has a 4% margin of error, meaning that the numbers are basically a tie.
And while the race for president is "basically" a tie, the U.S. Senate race actually is a tie:
A few recent polls showed the potential for Tim Kaine to perhaps pull ahead in this race, but our survey shows that he and George Allen
remain locked in a razor thin battle. While the polls shows that most
Virginians know both Allen and Kaine, there is still an astounding 12%
of voters who have yet to make up their mind. Only 7% of respondents to
the survey said they were undecided about the race for president.
You can see the full poll on Suffolk University's web site.
Here is pollster David Paleologos putting the numbers into perspective:
Here is my story on the poll for NBC12:
We are getting a better idea of just
how close the race for president is in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
NBC12 partnered with Suffolk University
to conduct a poll on the election.
Most swing state polls show
President Barack Obama opening up a sizable lead, but here in Virginia the race
is a virtual tie. In Ohio, Florida and Colorado
polls show President Obama taking control. But a new Suffolk University/ NBC12
poll shows that is not the case in Virginia.
In our poll President Obama
is holding on to a slim 2 point lead. Roughly 7% of Virginia voters are still
undecided and pollster David Paleologos believes the president still has work
to do.
"I can tell you with a high
degree of confidence this is a close race, this is not a landslide for Barack
Obama," he said.
But the news for Mitt Romney
is not all good.
Votes still like President
Obama more than they do the republican nominee. More than 52% view Obama favorably,
while only 42% feel that way about Romney. More voters have a negative opinion
of Romney than a positive one.
According to Paleogolos,
being liked has never been the president's problem.
“People are saying
they like Barack Obama more than Mitt Romney,” he explained.
It is Obama’s work as
president that some aren't comfortable with. In fact 48% of the respondents in
this poll disapprove of the way obama is doing his job. Only 46% believe he is
doing a good job.
Things are even tighter in
the race for U.S. Senate.
Our numbers show Tim Kaine
and George Allen locked at 44% each.
The favorability numbers
for the two former governors is roughly the same, both in the 40% range.
Palegolos believes both
races could come down to turnout.
“Anybody can win this
state, and there is not going to be a landslide win in either race,” he said. “Either the U.S. Senate race or the
Presidential race.”
Thursday will be a busy day in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will be in different parts of the state as we begin the big ramp up to election day.
As as both candidates make their case here, we will be getting a new sense for exactly where they stand with Virginia voters.
Tonight at 6pm only NBC12, we will release the details of a new poll conducted by our partners at Suffolk University. The poll will will have extensive information on the state of the presidential race in Virginia and the titanic battle for U.S. Senate between George Allen and Tim Kaine.
The poll takes an in depth look at the way voters view both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and explores the impact third party candidates like former Congressman Virgil Goode could play in the outcome.
This will also be the survey to emerge from Virginia, where the full impact of the covert 47% video will have been measured.
We will reveal the results of the poll first during our 6pm newscast on NBC12 and then have a complete in depth look at all the numbers here on Decision Virginia. In addition to all the full poll details, we will have an in depth interview with the highly regarded Suffolk University pollster, David Paleologos.
This will be a common refrain over the next several weeks. Both the
Romney and Obama campaigns are ready to go on the air in Virginia with
new ads dealing specifically with the economy.
In the Romney ad,
the GOP nominee speaks directly to the camera and pledges to create an
economy that will help create 12 million jobs. He also indirectly
responds to attacks based on the covert video where he was caught
telling a group of wealthy donors that 47% of Americans don't pay taxes.
"We shouldn’t measure
compassion by how many people are on welfare," Romney says in the ad. "We should measure compassion by
how many people are able to get off welfare and get a good paying job."
The ad can be seen below:
Meanwhile,
the Obama campaign is ready to drive the 47% message home as often as
they possibly can. Their new ad entitled "Fair Share" deals specifically
with the video and attempts to paint a picture that Romney isn't
interested in promoting policies that help people in need.
"Instead
of attacking folks who work for a living," the ad asks "Shouldn’t
we stand up for them?
Vice President Joe Biden wove a careful narrative at
an event Tuesday in Chesterfield. The VP argued that raising taxes on
the wealthy will make life easier for the middle class. He also accused Mitt Romney of wanting to raise taxes on that same group, while at the same time not understanding their needs.
(Biden spoke to about 600 supporters in Chesterfield)
Not suprisingly, the republicans aren't buying the argument. Both
sides seem prepared to lay their tax plans on the line and let the
voters decide.
Here is my report on Biden's visit to Chesterfield for NBC12:
Vice President Joe Biden was in
Chesterfield Tuesday, hoping to convince middle class voters to get behind the
Obama- Biden ticket. He used an issue that impacts
almost everyone, taxes.
Biden actually argued that
taxes should go up, but on a very specific group of Americans.
He was playing to his kind of crowd
and the Vice President didn't disappoint.
"God Love ya," he yelled to
a supporter in the front row sporting a Delaware t-shirt.
Biden didn't waste any time, attacking
republicans at the core of their economic message, by indirectly arguing that
raising taxes should be on the table.
"They have rejected every effort
to reduce the national debt,” he said of republican leaders. “If that effort
required one dollar even one dime of revenue coming from people making more
than $1 million.”
The major distinction is where
democrats want to draw that revenue - another word for taxes- from, the very
rich.
"They don't need another tax cut,"
Biden said.
And that is where the line is drawn.
"They will raise taxes,” said
republican spokesman Pete Snyder. “They will raise taxes on all Americans."
Synder is an entrepreneur himself is
happy to have that debate. He argues a tax hike on anyone will be enough to
destroy an already slow economic recovery.
"We are in a difficult time right
now,” he said. “The economy is sputtering. We need actual policies that are
going to grow the economy."
Biden believes hiking taxes on the
rich, will reduce the burden on the middle class, allowing them to spend more.
He used the covert video of Mitt Romney talking about 47% of the country not
paying taxes as evidence that republicans are out of touch.
Meanwhile, Biden did escape his Chesterfield visit without any kind of
verbal gaffe, but his past transgressions still followed him. A local
gas station owner whose business was directly on the route the Biden
motorcade traveled, posted this message for the V.P.
There is no doubt that Vice President Joe Biden
is an interesting character. The longtime Senator is not only a heart
beat away from the presidency, he also is a close adviser to President Barack Obama, who despite some criticism, has never wavered in his support for his pick for VP.
Despite everything Biden brings to the table, every time he gets in front of a crowd he is watched closely. On many different occasions, Biden has gone off script. He is prone to ramp
from the stump in a way that not only shows his deep knowledge, but
also leaves him vulnerable to saying some questionable things. It has
happened to him twice already in Virginia.
(Biden speaks at an event in Danville)
On one occassion Biden told a Virginia crowd that with their help, the Obama/Biden ticket will win "North Carolina". In Danville, Biden went off script while talking about proposed changes to banking regulation by Mitt Romney's
campaign. He said that Romney wanted to "unchain Wall Street", before
going on to say "They are going to put y'all back in chains." A large
portion of the crowd was African American. It forced Biden and the campaign to explain what the Vice President meant and gave republicans another line in their narrative that Biden is gaffe prone.
At no point has the Obama campaign ever made an effort to reduce Biden's role on the stump or manage what he has to say. In some respects it has paid off. Biden's speech at the Democratic National Convention was one of the most watched of the event.
Biden comes to Chesterfield on Tuesday, and Obama National Press Secretary Ben LaBolt told me that it is in this type of environment where the Vice President is at his best.
"He speaks in an unvarnished way that really reaches Virginians and Americans across the country in a special way," LaBolt said. "He is a huge asset for the president and I'd expect to see a lot more of him in the Richmond area before election day."
LaBolt argues that every time Biden strays from the teleprompter, he is winning over voters. Specifically middle class voters a core part of the Obama/Biden constituency.
"That helps the Vice President connect, people know they aren't going to get political talking points from him," said LaBolt. "He knows exactly what is on the line for the middle class in this election."
Expect to hear that exact message to Chesterfield voters on Tuesday. Biden
connecting with blue collar voters by using his working class
background. The question will be can he make that connection, without
giving republicans more fodder to attack him with?
We
will have full coverage of the Vice President's visit to Chesterfield
on NBC12. We will stream his comments live on NBC12.com. I'll have a
live report on NBC12 News at Noon and full recap during our early
evening newscasts.
You can see extended clips from our conversation with Ben LaBolt below:
Vice President Joe Biden will headline a campaign rally in support of he and President Barack Obama's re-election next Tuesday, September 25th in Chesterfield County.
Biden will speak at the Exhibition Hall at the Chesterfield County Fair Grounds. The doors for the event will open at 8:30am.
Of the four people running for President and Vice President, Biden is the only one who has yet to visit the Richmond area. He recently stumped in Southwest Virginia, where he ran into a bit of trouble when he said off the cuff to a largely African-American crowd that republicans would "put y'all back in chains".
The event is free and open to the public, but tickets are required. They will be available starting at 5pm on Saturday at local OFA field offices.
Here are the details from the campaign:
Vice President Joe Biden travels to Chesterfield County
On Tuesday, September 25, Vice President Biden will deliver
remarks at a grassroots event in Chesterfield, VA
EVENT LOCATION: Exhibition Hall, Chesterfield County
Fairgrounds
DOORS OPEN:
8:30 AM EDT, Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Ticket Distribution Information for Members
of the Public: Tickets are
available for the Vice President's event in Chesterfield, VA. The event is free
and open to the public, but tickets are required for entrance. One ticket per
person will be distributed on a first-come, first-served basis. To pick up your
ticket, visit one of the following locations beginning Saturday, September
22, 2012 at 5:00pm EDT and continuing on Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 11:00am
EDT.
Rarely do you leave a debate wondering
what the long term impact might be. Usually you get a pretty good
impression right away. But today's NBC4/Fairfax County Chamber of
Commerce U.S. Senate debate was a tangle between two Virginia political
titans that will take some time to see how it plays out.
(Moderator David Gregory with Tim Kaine and George Allen)
Tim Kaine and George Allen
sparred on defense cuts, the economy, issues born out of the
presidential race and their own careers in Washington and Richmond.
However in a debate that was on TV, but only in the Washington, D.C.
metro and in the middle of the day, it is the coverage of the event that
will have the lasting impression and Tim Kaine had a moment in the
debate that republicans are already promising to bring up from here on
out.
It was a discussion on tax policy,
based on GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney's comments about 47% of
Americans who don't pay federal income tax. Moderator David Gregory
pressed Kaine on his personal views of who should pay income taxes.
Here is a transcript of the exchange:
(Moderator David) GREGORY: Do you
believe that everyone in Virginia should pay something in federal income tax?
KAINE: Well, everyone pays taxes, I
mean, the statistics that have come out..
GREGORY: I'm asking about federal
income taxes.
KAINE: I would be open to a proposal
that would have some minimum tax level for everyone.
Kaine went on to layout the specifics of his tax policy. Later in the
post debate gaggle he explained what he meant. He said he wasn't calling
for a minimum across the board tax level, but instead showing that he
was open to any possible suggestions for improving tax policy.
Here are his full remarks from the gaggle. (I apologize for our unfortunate camera position)
Later Kaine senior adviser Mo Elleithee defended his bosses his position in a lengthy blog post. Saying in his opening line that the Kaine team was "pumped" about his performance.
Not surprisingly, republicans aren't impressed. They quickly posted the debate moment online and fired off a fundraising e-mail based on Kaine's comments.
Allen came to the post debate gaggle prepared to double down on Kaine's comments which play right into the GOP's claim that Kaine is a tax raiser:
It is doubtful that this relatively
minor slip by Kaine will alter the course of this race dramatically.
However, recent polls showed the direction of the race was heading in
the democrat's favor. This slip will offer Allen's team more fodder on
the tax issue, an issue republican's generally focus on and could swing undecided voters. A pool that in this race in particular is smaller and smaller.
Here is my full wrap on the debate for NBC12:
It doesn't get any bigger than this.
Virginia's race for the U.S. senate is one of the most watched in the country.
Thursday, two commonwealth
political titans, George Allen and Tim Kaine, met in their first televised
debate. The race was on TV, but only in the Washington, D.C. metro area and in
the middle of the day, so the vast majority of likely voters didn't see what
happened.
Instead they will be left
with the lingering sound bites, and Tim Kaine gave one that republicans are
already pouncing on.
It was a debate filled with plenty of
substance. Allen and Kaine giving their take on things like defense cuts.
"He (Allen) is on more sides of
this than a Rubix Cube," said Kaine while discussing Allen’s position on
the congressional showdown over the sequestration budget.
On foreign policy, Allen was critical
of the Obama administration and talked tough on the situation in the Middle
East.
"The biggest threat I think is Iran,”
Allen said. “If Iran gets nuclear weapons that needs to be prevented."
But it was a comment Kaine made on
taxes inside that Capital One building in McLean that Allen was quick to pounce
on afterward. Here is an exact transcript:
(Moderator David) GREGORY: Do you
believe that everyone in Virginia should pay something in federal income tax?
KAINE: Well, everyone pays taxes, I
mean, the statistics that have come out..
GREGORY: I'm asking about federal
income taxes.
KAINE: I would be open to a proposal
that would have some minimum tax level for everyone.
Kaine made the point after a lengthy
discussion born out of Mitt Romney's comments about 47 percent of Americans not
paying federal income tax. Allen wasn't surprised.
"It is typical of Tim Kaine,”
Allen said. “As I mentioned his record
is one of always looking to raise taxes."
Kaine argued that he wasn't calling
for a minimum across the board tax, but rather showing that he is open to any
suggestions.
"I don't think it should be that
newsworthy that a Senator would consider what a colleague proposes," Kaine
said with a chuckle.
A characteristic the democrat believes
is lacking in his opponent.
"We need more bridge builders,”
Kaine said during the debate. “We need more people who know how to listen and
find common ground."
2012
marks a big change when it comes to voting in the Commonwealth of
Virginia. There are many new voting identification standards, and you
need to be prepared to produce the proper ID before you vote or your
ballot may not be counted right away.
(Governor Bob McDonnell casts his ballot in 2010)
Here is a step by step procedure to make sure you are ready to vote:
FIRST- make sure you are registered.
If you
have ever voted before, chances are you don't need to do anything. Your
registration carries over from year to year. It does not need to be
renewed and it never expires. If you aren't 100% sure if you are
registered it is easy to find out.
Click on this link, from the State Board of Elections. Input your information and it will tell you if you are registered and where to go to vote.
KEEP IN MIND, YOU MUST BE REGISTERED BY OCTOBER 15, 2012 TO PARTICIPATE IN THE 2012 ELECTION.
SECOND- make sure your address hasn't changed since the last time you voted.
You
don't ever have to renew your registration, but if you move out of your
voting district you must inform the board of elections of your move. It
will likely mean that you will cast a ballot in a different location and
it could mean that you will be voting for different people in local
elections.
You can check to make sure that your current address matches the address online with the Board of Elections right here.
THIRD- prepare to cast your ballot by making sure that you the have the correct form of ID before you go to the polls.
This is
the biggest change. In the past there was a small group of things you
could use as a valid ID, but if you didn't have one, you were still able
to cast your ballot. Now if you don't have the appropriate form of ID,
you can still cast your ballot, but it will be set aside until you can
produce the correct documents.
While there is a more strict process to prove your identification, there are many more forms of ID that are now accepted.
Here is the full list of acceptable forms of identifications at the voting booth:
Virginia voter registration card
Valid Virginia driver's license
Military ID
Any Federal, Virginia state or local government-issued ID
Employer issued photo ID card
Concealed handgun permit
Valid student ID issued by any institution of higher education located in the Commonwealth of Virginia
Current utility bill, bank statement, government check or paycheck indicating the name and address of the voter
Social
Security card (*there are special ID requirements for federal elections
regarding Social Security cards, see the full explantion on the Board of Elections web site.)
If for
some reason you don't have one of these potential forms of ID, but you
are registered, check your mail because every single active voter will
be mailed a Virginia Voter ID card starting this week. That is sufficent
enough to gain access to the voting booth.
The
state board of elections has produced this very handy how-to video to
explain what you need to be aware of when you head to the polls:
KEEP IN MIND.. A
photo ID is accepted but is NOT REQUIRED. Please refer to the list
above and make sure that you have one of those forms of ID to make sure
you are prepared to vote.
FOURTH- prepare to vote absentee if you won't be able to vote in person on election day.
An
absentee ballot counts the same as voting in person. You must apply for
an absentee ballot 45 days before election day. All the information you
need can be found on the State Board of Elections web site.
Any more questions? The
State Board of Elections has revamped their web site with many easy to
use features that can help you make sure you are ready.
Finally..
if you run into any trouble registering, casting a ballot or getting an
absentee ballot let us know. E-mail me at rnobles@nbc12.com. Everyone
deserves the right to vote and we want to make sure that you don't run
into any trouble when you are given the opportunity to have your voice
heard.
A good metric of just how far a story has resonated on the campaign trail is whether it ends up in the local news.
And I'm not just saying that because I am a local news reporter.
There is a great deal of campaign fodder that is loud and important to a relatively
small group of people. If you read dedicated political reporting like
this blog every day, you can probably find a scandal or a huge story
just about every day. But very few of those "major stories" make it to
the vast majority of people who vote.
That is why local news is a good metric for just how big a story has
become. In order to pass the threshold of a local newscast a story will
have had to reach a big enough level where we feel it will matter to the
average viewer. In most cases the average viewer is the average voter.
This week the Mitt Romney campaign is dealing with such a story. A video of him at a private fundraiser has turned into a full blown story that was enough to make it into our 11pm newscast Tuesday night.
The Barack Obama campaign has had it's share of
similar less than flattering news. His "you didn't build that" comment
as an example, has made it into our newscast on several different
occasions.
So when your are looking to sift through what is a big deal, and what
is just a minor blip on the campaign radar, the 11pm news is a good
start.
Speaking of which, here is my story on the video fallout from NBC12:
It's been posted on the internet for several months, now, but in just in the
last 24 hours, it has become a major headache for Mitt Romney and his campaign.
You've probably seen at least a portion
of the video. It is grainy and it's hard to hear, but it's reverberation on
the campaign trail is already loud and clear.
In the video, candidate Romney is seen off in the distance. He makes several
claims Obama National Communications Director Brent Colburn argues he wouldn't
have made if he knew a camera was rolling.
"That's another reason why we think people really need to pay attention,"
Colburn said.
The section that has gotten the most attention is a point the former governor
made about people who don't pay income taxes. He said those 47% will never vote
for him. Colburn argues that those 47% include a lot of people.
"Look these are people who that are out there working hard," he said. "They
are contributing to society; they aren't put there looking for a government hand
out."
Even Governor Bob McDonnell, a Romney supporter, argued this morning on
national TV that he probably could've made his point better.
"I think what the governor was trying to say and he said he didn't say it
right is what's being reported," he told Fox & Friends on the Fox News
Channel.
That point is that the GOP believes more and more people are becoming
dependent on government under President Obama. It is something his running mate
Paul Ryan attempted to clarify Tuesday during a stop in Newport News.
"Government dependency has gone up, economic stagnation has persisted under
the Obama administration's policies," he said. "The whole point he was trying
to make is that we want to get people onto lives of self sufficiency."
